As the calendar turns to May, Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture, with analysts divided over whether the cryptocurrency is poised for a significant sell-off. Historical patterns suggest that mid-term election years have often been challenging for Bitcoin, raising concerns that we could witness a recurrence of past price collapses.
In both May 2018 and May 2022, Bitcoin faced dramatic downturns, plummeting from nearly $10,000 to about $7,000 and from approximately $40,000 to $28,500, respectively. With 2026 marking another election cycle and the ongoing bear market, fears are mounting that these historical trends could repeat.
Analysts Split on Future Trajectory
Crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar stated, “The most brutal pattern in Bitcoin history. Nobody wants to hear this. But the pattern is perfect. Mid-term election years. Bitcoin dumps. Every time.” Enkelaar cautioned that if the situation mirrors the past, Bitcoin could see its value retreat to around $33,000, notwithstanding recent positive movements in legislation like the CLARITY Act and favorable sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade relations.
Conversely, Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, highlighted the potential for a capitulation phase if Bitcoin prices remain subdued beneath $78,000, suggesting that bearish pressures are gaining momentum. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $76,900, having declined by 5.6% over the past week.
The Bigger Picture: Market Drivers Behind Price Movements
Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, posited that while historical seasonal patterns suggest a possible ‘sell in May’ scenario, the underlying causes for previous collapses were far more specific. “The calendar didn’t cause those drawdowns; specific shocks did,” Ko asserted. He believes that the structural changes in the market, including the advent of spot ETFs and broader corporate treasury adoption, mitigate the chances of severe price declines seen in earlier cycles.
“I don’t expect BTC to undergo the 70% to 80% drawdowns we’ve witnessed in the past,” he remarked, suggesting that, while Bitcoin could descend to the mid-$60,000s under macroeconomic stress, a fall to $33,000 would require a fundamental market failure rather than a mere repetition of historical trends.
Support Levels and Market Confidence
According to Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, the current price action of Bitcoin suggests a consolidation phase after a robust 40% increase. He cautioned, however, that the pivotal support level around $76,000 must hold to avoid a deeper market plunge. “If that level is lost, I would assume that the markets will see a further downward fall towards lower boundaries,” he warned.
The coming weeks will be crucial for Bitcoin, as traders and investors alike monitor both technical signals and macroeconomic developments closely. Will Bitcoin defy historical patterns, or will 2026 see the ghosts of past May sell-offs return?
